Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-10-19 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

NYI: 58.9%

MTL: 41.1%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.31

MTL: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	31	26	5	83.9%	4.71	2	-0.29
MTL	Cayden Primeau	43	37	6	86.0%	7.47	6	1.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs MTL: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	MTL
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	NYI
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	13	1	1.00
1	MTL	17	0	1.06
2	NYI	16	0	1.20
2	MTL	12	0	0.74
3	NYI	20	2	1.59
3	MTL	5	0	0.25
4	NYI	6	0	0.48
4	MTL	4	0	0.32
5	NYI	9	3	3.20
5	MTL	9	2	2.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6