Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2024-10-20 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

SJS: 34.5%

COL: 65.5%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.04

COL: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

SJS

Vitek Vanecek - 17-9-3 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA

COL

Justus Annunen - 8-4-1 | 0.928 SV% | 2.25 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Vitek Vanecek	22	18	4	81.8%	3.45	2	-0.55
COL	Justus Annunen	26	25	1	96.2%	1.96	1	0.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • SJS at home vs COL: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	COL 4 - 2 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-26	COL 6 - 0 SJS	COL	COL
2025-11-01	SJS 3 - 2 COL	SJS	COL
2025-03-06	COL 7 - 3 SJS	COL	COL
2024-12-19	SJS 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	10	1	0.45
1	COL	15	0	1.07
2	SJS	21	0	1.26
2	COL	11	0	0.66
3	SJS	11	0	0.25
3	COL	9	2	1.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2