Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-10-22 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

PHI: 49.2%

WSH: 50.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.17

WSH: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PHI at home vs WSH: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	PHI
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	1	1.04
1	WSH	12	0	0.54
2	PHI	7	0	0.54
2	WSH	15	0	0.73
3	PHI	8	0	0.23
3	WSH	16	0	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0