Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-10-22 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

BUF: 63.1%

DAL: 36.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.17

DAL: 2.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs DAL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	BUF 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2025-12-31	DAL 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	DAL
2024-12-31	DAL 4 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL
2024-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DAL	BUF	BUF
2024-04-09	DAL 3 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.69
1	DAL	12	0	0.76
2	BUF	15	1	1.61
2	DAL	13	0	0.96
3	BUF	10	4	2.82
3	DAL	18	3	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 2.6