Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-10-22 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

BUF: 60.4%

DAL: 39.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.10

DAL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	30	28	2	93.3%	2.90	3	0.90
DAL	Jake Oettinger	25	21	4	84.0%	5.13	5	1.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • BUF at home vs DAL: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	BUF 0 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2026-04-15	BUF 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2025-12-31	DAL 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	DAL
2024-12-31	DAL 4 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL
2024-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DAL	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.69
1	DAL	12	0	0.76
2	BUF	15	1	1.61
2	DAL	13	0	0.96
3	BUF	10	4	2.82
3	DAL	18	3	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1