Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-10-22 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 0 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 59.1%

DET: 40.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.22

DET: 2.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	11	10	1	90.9%	0.92	1	-0.08
DET	Alex Lyon	30	30	0	100.0%	2.64	0	2.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs DET: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	DET 3 - 2 NYI	DET	DET
2025-11-20	DET 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-10-23	NYI 7 - 2 DET	NYI	NYI
2024-11-25	NYI 2 - 4 DET	DET	NYI
2024-11-21	DET 2 - 1 NYI	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	18	0	0.69
1	DET	5	0	0.35
2	NYI	21	0	1.20
2	DET	9	1	0.42
3	NYI	11	0	0.75
3	DET	4	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 0 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 2.5