Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-10-22 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

CGY: 53.0%

PIT: 47.0%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.12

PIT: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	43	38	5	88.4%	5.09	4	0.09
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	30	24	6	80.0%	5.53	5	-0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	CGY 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-10	PIT 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PIT
2024-11-30	PIT 6 - 2 CGY	PIT	CGY
2024-10-22	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY
2024-03-02	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	1	1.19
1	PIT	16	1	1.08
2	CGY	12	0	0.65
2	PIT	18	0	1.01
3	CGY	13	1	0.68
3	PIT	17	1	0.98
4	CGY	1	0	0.13
4	PIT	2	0	0.09
5	CGY	6	3	2.87
5	PIT	6	2	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 4 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3