San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2024-10-22 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

ANA: 62.7%

SJS: 37.3%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.18

SJS: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

SJS

Mackenzie Blackwood - 10-25-4 | 0.899 SV% | 3.45 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	28	27	1	96.4%	2.52	0	1.52
SJS	Mackenzie Blackwood	40	37	3	92.5%	3.90	2	0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • ANA at home vs SJS: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	ANA 6 - 1 SJS	ANA	ANA
2026-04-01	SJS 4 - 3 ANA	SJS	SJS
2025-12-29	ANA 4 - 5 SJS	SJS	ANA
2025-10-11	SJS 6 - 7 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-04-01	ANA 4 - 3 SJS	ANA	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	20	0	0.84
1	SJS	15	0	1.05
2	ANA	24	0	1.58
2	SJS	17	0	0.87
3	ANA	15	2	1.48
3	SJS	16	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0