Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-10-23 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

WSH: 67.3%

PHI: 32.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.19

PHI: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	29	26	3	89.7%	2.72	1	-0.28
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	25	19	6	76.0%	3.48	4	-2.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • WSH at home vs PHI: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	PHI
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	0	0.40
1	PHI	4	0	0.05
2	WSH	10	2	0.87
2	PHI	20	1	1.72
3	WSH	19	2	2.22
3	PHI	11	0	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.6