St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-10-24 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 5 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 53.4%

STL: 46.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.36

STL: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	STL 5 - 1 TOR	STL	STL
2025-11-18	TOR 3 - 2 STL	TOR	STL
2024-11-02	STL 4 - 2 TOR	STL	TOR
2024-10-24	TOR 1 - 5 STL	STL	TOR
2024-02-19	STL 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	2	1.19
1	STL	13	0	0.72
2	TOR	24	1	1.55
2	STL	11	1	0.91
3	TOR	21	2	1.41
3	STL	11	1	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 5 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1