New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-10-24 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 3 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 42.9%

NJD: 57.1%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.68

NJD: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	40	37	3	92.5%	4.02	3	1.02
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	20	15	5	75.0%	2.50	2	-2.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • DET at home vs NJD: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	DET 4 - 5 NJD	NJD	DET
2026-04-11	DET 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2026-03-08	NJD 0 - 3 DET	DET	NJD
2025-11-24	NJD 4 - 3 DET	NJD	NJD
2025-04-16	NJD 2 - 5 DET	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	13	0	0.76
1	NJD	21	1	1.50
2	DET	11	0	0.36
2	NJD	22	1	1.38
3	DET	9	2	1.38
3	NJD	15	1	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 2.7 - 3.2