Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-10-24 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 54.8%
MIN: 45.2%
Expected Goals
TBL: 2.89
MIN: 2.87
Total Goals
Median: 4.7
Over 5.5: 37%
Over 6.5: 24%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
MIN
Filip Gustavsson - 28-15-6 | 0.903 SV% | 2.69 GAA
| Stat | TBL | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.912 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.836 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.844 | 0.898 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.47 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs MIN: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | TBL 6 - 3 MIN | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-03-03 | MIN 5 - 1 TBL | MIN | TBL |
| 2024-11-01 | MIN 5 - 3 TBL | MIN | MIN |
| 2024-10-24 | TBL 2 - 4 MIN | MIN | TBL |
| 2024-01-18 | TBL 7 - 3 MIN | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:23 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 08:55 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:31 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:22 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 00:54 | MIN | Goal |
| 3 | 19:26 | MIN | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild
Expected: 2.9 - 2.9
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