Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-10-24 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 54.7%

MIN: 45.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.03

MIN: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs MIN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	TBL 6 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-03	MIN 5 - 1 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-11-01	MIN 5 - 3 TBL	MIN	MIN
2024-10-24	TBL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	TBL
2024-01-18	TBL 7 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	0	0.99
1	MIN	7	0	0.28
2	TBL	10	0	0.82
2	MIN	12	0	0.66
3	TBL	7	0	0.13
3	MIN	10	3	1.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1