Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-10-24 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild
🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 52.9%
MIN: 47.1%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.17
MIN: 3.26
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
MIN
Filip Gustavsson - 20-9-6 | 0.906 SV% | 2.64 GAA
| Stat | TBL | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.912 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.895 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.47 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs MIN: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-01 | MIN 5 - 3 TBL | MIN | MIN |
| 2024-10-24 | TBL 2 - 4 MIN | MIN | TBL |
| 2024-01-18 | TBL 7 - 3 MIN | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-01-04 | MIN 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | MIN |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:23 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 08:55 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:31 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:22 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 00:54 | MIN | Goal |
| 3 | 19:26 | MIN | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Minnesota Wild
Expected: 3.2 - 3.3