Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-10-25 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 44.9%

OTT: 55.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.99

OTT: 3.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 44%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	39	35	4	89.7%	2.58	0	-1.42
OTT	Linus Ullmark	28	22	6	78.6%	2.71	2	-3.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	OTT 7 - 1 VGK	OTT	OTT
2025-11-26	VGK 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	VGK
2024-11-21	OTT 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	OTT
2024-10-25	VGK 6 - 4 OTT	VGK	OTT
2024-02-24	OTT 4 - 3 VGK	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	17	1	1.06
1	OTT	17	0	0.79
2	VGK	11	0	0.47
2	OTT	19	0	0.68
3	VGK	10	1	1.18
3	OTT	20	0	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.0 - 3.5