Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-10-26 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 44.6%

TOR: 55.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.11

TOR: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	16	0	1.02
1	TOR	10	0	0.75
2	BOS	17	2	1.35
2	TOR	14	0	1.21
3	BOS	10	0	0.43
3	TOR	14	1	0.90
4	BOS	3	2	1.09
4	TOR	2	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0