Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-10-26 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

BOS: 50.5%

TOR: 49.5%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.86

TOR: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	23	20	3	87.0%	3.04	1	0.04
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	34	30	4	88.2%	3.90	4	-0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	16	0	1.02
1	TOR	10	0	0.75
2	BOS	17	2	1.35
2	TOR	14	0	1.21
3	BOS	10	0	0.43
3	TOR	14	1	0.90
4	BOS	3	2	1.09
4	TOR	2	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1