St. Louis Blues at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-10-26 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

MTL: 50.3%

STL: 49.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.00

STL: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	31	29	2	93.5%	3.82	6	1.82
STL	Jordan Binnington	26	21	5	80.8%	3.15	3	-1.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs STL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	STL 2 - 0 MTL	STL	MTL
2025-12-07	MTL 3 - 4 STL	STL	MTL
2025-03-25	STL 6 - 1 MTL	STL	STL
2024-10-26	MTL 5 - 2 STL	MTL	MTL
2024-02-11	MTL 2 - 7 STL	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	0	0.78
1	STL	8	0	0.45
2	MTL	19	2	1.44
2	STL	19	4	2.01
3	MTL	8	1	0.93
3	STL	19	2	1.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4