Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-10-26 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

TBL: 62.2%

WSH: 37.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.93

WSH: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	32	0	100.0%	2.24	0	2.24
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	21	18	3	85.7%	1.81	1	-1.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs WSH: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	0	0.66
1	WSH	12	0	0.50
2	TBL	14	0	0.52
2	WSH	23	0	0.99
3	TBL	8	1	0.63
3	WSH	11	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 2.8