Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2024-10-26 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Washington Capitals
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 53.9%
WSH: 46.1%
Expected Goals
TBL: 2.96
WSH: 2.27
Total Goals
Median: 5.0
Over 5.5: 45%
Over 6.5: 30%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | TBL | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.914 | 0.800 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs WSH: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | WSH 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2025-11-08 | TBL 3 - 2 WSH | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-14 | WSH 3 - 2 TBL | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-01 | WSH 1 - 3 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2024-11-27 | TBL 4 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 05:27 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 02:26 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:10 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 53.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.2
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.0 - 2.3