Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2024-10-27 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 54.1%
MTL: 45.9%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.65
MTL: 2.98
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | PHI | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.881 | — |
| GAA | 2.40 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • PHI at home vs MTL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | MTL 1 - 4 PHI | PHI | MTL |
| 2025-11-04 | MTL 4 - 5 PHI | PHI | MTL |
| 2025-04-05 | MTL 3 - 2 PHI | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-03-27 | PHI 6 - 4 MTL | PHI | PHI |
| 2024-10-27 | PHI 3 - 4 MTL | MTL | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:42 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 17:24 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 04:48 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:48 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:01 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:48 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:17 | MTL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.7 - 3.0