Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-10-27 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (76% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 76.2%

MTL: 23.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 4.09

MTL: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

PHI

Aleksei Kolosov - 5-9-1 | 0.867 SV% | 3.59 GAA

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Aleksei Kolosov	24	20	4	83.3%	2.90	2	-1.10
MTL	Cayden Primeau	26	23	3	88.5%	2.51	1	-0.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • PHI at home vs MTL: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.96
1	MTL	15	1	1.37
2	PHI	11	0	0.42
2	MTL	15	1	1.40
3	PHI	19	1	1.12
3	MTL	6	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 76.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.1 - 2.7