Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-10-27 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

COL: 67.0%

OTT: 33.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.46

OTT: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 35%

COL

Justus Annunen - 8-4-1 | 0.928 SV% | 2.25 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Justus Annunen	30	26	4	86.7%	3.04	1	-0.96
OTT	Anton Forsberg	32	27	5	84.4%	5.35	7	0.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs OTT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-28	OTT 5 - 2 COL	OTT	COL
2026-01-08	COL 8 - 2 OTT	COL	COL
2025-03-20	OTT 1 - 5 COL	COL	OTT
2024-10-27	COL 5 - 4 OTT	COL	COL
2024-01-16	OTT 4 - 7 COL	COL	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	11	2	1.40
1	OTT	9	0	0.39
2	COL	18	2	1.41
2	OTT	14	0	1.08
3	COL	20	3	2.54
3	OTT	23	1	1.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1