Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-10-28 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Nashville Predators

Win Probability

TBL: 51.9%

NSH: 48.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.83

NSH: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	37	35	2	94.6%	2.90	1	0.90
NSH	Juuse Saros	27	24	3	88.9%	4.12	3	1.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • TBL at home vs NSH: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-29	TBL 3 - 2 NSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-28	NSH 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-29	NSH 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-28	TBL 3 - 2 NSH	TBL	TBL
2023-12-07	NSH 5 - 1 TBL	NSH	NSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	1	1.92
1	NSH	11	0	0.58
2	TBL	9	0	0.37
2	NSH	19	1	1.53
3	TBL	15	2	1.47
3	NSH	15	0	0.71
4	TBL	2	0	0.36
4	NSH	1	0	0.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Nashville Predators

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2