Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions
2024-10-28 • Canada Life Centre
Winnipeg Jets 4 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WPG: 54.5%
TOR: 45.5%
Expected Goals
WPG: 3.71
TOR: 2.31
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | WPG | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.892 | 0.765 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs TOR: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | WPG 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | WPG |
| 2026-01-01 | TOR 6 - 5 WPG | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-12-23 | TOR 2 - 5 WPG | WPG | TOR |
| 2024-10-28 | WPG 4 - 6 TOR | TOR | WPG |
| 2024-01-27 | WPG 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:56 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 17:47 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 00:56 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 03:25 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 06:19 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 11:25 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 17:53 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 07:36 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 16:13 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:35 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 10.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Winnipeg Jets 4 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.7 - 2.3