Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2024-10-28 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 56.6%

TOR: 43.4%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.55

TOR: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 49%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	36	30	6	83.3%	3.61	3	-2.39
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	23	19	4	82.6%	2.05	1	-1.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WPG at home vs TOR: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WPG 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG
2026-01-01	TOR 6 - 5 WPG	TOR	TOR
2024-12-23	TOR 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	TOR
2024-10-28	WPG 4 - 6 TOR	TOR	WPG
2024-01-27	WPG 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	8	0	0.15
1	TOR	24	1	1.55
2	WPG	17	0	1.12
2	TOR	19	1	1.40
3	WPG	11	1	0.78
3	TOR	5	1	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1