Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2024-10-28 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 53.8%

TOR: 46.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.39

TOR: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • WPG at home vs TOR: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WPG 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG
2026-01-01	TOR 6 - 5 WPG	TOR	TOR
2024-12-23	TOR 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	TOR
2024-10-28	WPG 4 - 6 TOR	TOR	WPG
2024-01-27	WPG 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	8	0	0.15
1	TOR	24	1	1.55
2	WPG	17	0	1.12
2	TOR	19	1	1.40
3	WPG	11	1	0.78
3	TOR	5	1	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9