Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2024-10-28 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 68.3%

CHI: 31.7%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.65

CHI: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	26	21	5	80.8%	3.78	5	-1.22
CHI	Petr Mrazek	26	24	2	92.3%	2.43	0	0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • COL at home vs CHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	CHI 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-02-28	COL 3 - 1 CHI	COL	COL
2025-11-23	CHI 0 - 1 COL	COL	COL
2025-04-02	CHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-03-10	COL 3 - 0 CHI	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	10	0	0.93
1	CHI	18	3	1.62
2	COL	11	0	0.90
2	CHI	6	0	0.41
3	COL	14	0	0.61
3	CHI	12	2	1.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 5 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0