San Jose Sharks at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2024-10-28 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 4 - 5 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)

Win Probability

UTA: 74.1%

SJS: 25.9%

Expected Goals

UTA: 4.02

SJS: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

UTA

Connor Ingram - 9-8-4 | 0.882 SV% | 3.27 GAA

SJS

Mackenzie Blackwood - 10-25-4 | 0.899 SV% | 3.45 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Connor Ingram	46	41	5	89.1%	4.58	6	-0.42
SJS	Mackenzie Blackwood	23	19	4	82.6%	2.27	2	-1.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • UTA at home vs SJS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-01	SJS 6 - 3 UTA	SJS	SJS
2025-11-18	SJS 3 - 2 UTA	SJS	SJS
2025-10-17	UTA 6 - 3 SJS	UTA	UTA
2025-01-10	UTA 2 - 1 SJS	UTA	UTA
2024-12-14	SJS 3 - 4 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	17	1	0.70
1	SJS	14	3	1.41
2	UTA	14	1	1.07
2	SJS	22	1	1.20
3	UTA	8	0	0.35
3	SJS	22	1	1.22
4	UTA	1	0	0.15
4	SJS	4	1	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 74.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 4 - 5 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 4.0 - 2.6