Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2024-10-28 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 0 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 41.4%
CGY: 58.6%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.15
CGY: 2.99
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 23-29-3 | 0.899 SV% | 3.01 GAA
| Stat | VGK | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.886 | 0.829 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs CGY: 5-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | VGK 6 - 3 CGY | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-12-20 | CGY 6 - 3 VGK | CGY | VGK |
| 2025-10-18 | VGK 6 - 1 CGY | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-10-14 | CGY 2 - 4 VGK | VGK | CGY |
| 2025-04-15 | CGY 5 - 4 VGK | CGY | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:39 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 03:30 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 02:19 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 13:59 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 14:14 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 0 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0
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