St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-10-29 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 8 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

OTT: 63.8%

STL: 36.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 4.13

STL: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	27	26	1	96.3%	2.10	1	1.10
STL	Joel Hofer	35	27	8	77.1%	2.63	0	-5.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • OTT at home vs STL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	OTT 1 - 2 STL	STL	OTT
2025-11-28	STL 4 - 3 OTT	STL	OTT
2025-01-03	STL 4 - 0 OTT	STL	STL
2024-10-29	OTT 8 - 1 STL	OTT	OTT
2024-03-21	OTT 2 - 5 STL	STL	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	20	0	1.15
1	STL	10	0	0.42
2	OTT	15	0	0.91
2	STL	11	0	0.41
3	OTT	12	0	0.56
3	STL	17	1	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 8 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 4.1 - 2.8