St. Louis Blues at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-10-31 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

PHI: 60.5%

STL: 39.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.53

STL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	21	20	1	95.2%	1.86	0	0.86
STL	Jordan Binnington	21	19	2	90.5%	1.53	0	-0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-20	PHI 3 - 2 STL	PHI	PHI
2025-11-14	STL 5 - 6 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-11-30	STL 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-10-31	PHI 2 - 1 STL	PHI	PHI
2024-03-04	PHI 1 - 2 STL	STL	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	PHI	10	0.46
1	STL	14	0.60
2	PHI	17	0.47
2	STL	13	0.78
3	PHI	9	0.60
3	STL	11	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9