Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-10-31 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

WSH: 70.3%

MTL: 29.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 4.49

MTL: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	15	12	3	80.0%	1.57	0	-1.43
MTL	Cayden Primeau	34	28	6	82.4%	4.20	3	-1.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • WSH at home vs MTL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	0	0.86
1	MTL	7	0	0.26
2	WSH	23	1	1.78
2	MTL	11	0	0.58
3	WSH	20	2	1.56
3	MTL	8	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.5 - 2.6