Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2024-11-01 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 5 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

MIN: 50.3%

TBL: 49.7%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.40

TBL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	30	27	3	90.0%	2.11	2	-0.89
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	22	17	5	77.3%	4.20	4	-0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • MIN at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	TBL 3 - 2 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-24	TBL 6 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-03	MIN 5 - 1 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-11-01	MIN 5 - 3 TBL	MIN	MIN
2024-10-24	TBL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	9	0	0.36
1	TBL	18	1	1.19
2	MIN	18	2	2.05
2	TBL	7	0	0.38
3	MIN	14	2	1.79
3	TBL	11	1	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 5 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1