Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-11-02 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

PIT: 71.4%

MTL: 28.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.98

MTL: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 52%

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	26	25	1	96.2%	1.93	1	0.93
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	24	21	3	87.5%	2.41	1	-0.59

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • PIT at home vs MTL: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-03	PIT 6 - 5 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	PIT
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.34
1	MTL	7	0	0.24
2	PIT	20	0	1.11
2	MTL	13	0	0.74
3	PIT	7	1	0.95
3	MTL	14	1	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 71.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.0 - 2.8