New York Islanders at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2024-11-03 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 2 New York Islanders

Win Probability

NYR: 59.1%

NYI: 40.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.29

NYI: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	37	35	2	94.6%	3.89	4	1.89
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	40	35	5	87.5%	3.48	1	-1.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs NYI: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	NYR 5 - 2 NYI	NYR	NYR
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	13	0	1.02
1	NYI	15	0	0.85
2	NYR	19	0	1.21
2	NYI	21	4	2.22
3	NYR	13	1	1.26
3	NYI	14	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0