Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2024-11-03 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 7 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

WPG: 63.6%

TBL: 36.4%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.34

TBL: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs TBL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	WPG 4 - 1 TBL	WPG	WPG
2026-01-29	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-14	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-03	WPG 7 - 4 TBL	WPG	WPG
2024-01-02	WPG 4 - 2 TBL	WPG	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	15	0	0.97
1	TBL	14	2	1.33
2	WPG	14	0	0.76
2	TBL	8	0	0.46
3	WPG	16	3	2.67
3	TBL	19	0	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 7 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7