Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2024-11-03 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 2 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

MIN: 55.5%

TOR: 44.5%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.17

TOR: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	28	27	1	96.4%	1.91	1	0.91
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	33	31	2	93.9%	3.54	2	1.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MIN at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MIN 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	MIN
2026-01-19	TOR 3 - 6 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-01-29	TOR 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	TOR
2024-11-03	MIN 2 - 1 TOR	MIN	MIN
2023-11-19	MIN 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	15	1	1.22
1	TOR	17	1	1.08
2	MIN	16	0	1.09
2	TOR	12	0	0.62
3	MIN	16	1	1.05
3	TOR	8	0	0.21
4	MIN	1	0	0.18
4	TOR	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 2 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2