Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-11-05 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 48.1%

OTT: 51.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.20

OTT: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • BUF at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	20	0	1.10
1	OTT	20	0	0.85
2	BUF	14	0	1.13
2	OTT	18	1	1.85
3	BUF	12	1	1.46
3	OTT	17	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8