Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-11-05 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 0 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

TOR: 58.1%

BOS: 41.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.18

BOS: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TOR at home vs BOS: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.51
1	BOS	10	0	0.56
2	TOR	16	0	1.05
2	BOS	15	0	0.99
3	TOR	9	2	1.29
3	BOS	18	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 0 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9