Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2024-11-05 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 56.3%
CGY: 43.7%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.94
CGY: 2.56
Total Goals
Median: 5.1
Over 5.5: 47%
Over 6.5: 32%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
| Stat | MTL | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.877 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.973 | 0.906 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs CGY: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | MTL 4 - 1 CGY | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-10-22 | CGY 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | CGY |
| 2025-03-08 | CGY 1 - 0 MTL | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-11-05 | MTL 2 - 3 CGY | CGY | MTL |
| 2024-03-16 | CGY 5 - 2 MTL | CGY | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 04:20 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 16:23 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:56 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:14 | MTL | Goal |
| 4 | 00:07 | CGY | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Calgary Flames
Expected: 2.9 - 2.6