Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2024-11-05 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 46.9%

TBL: 53.1%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.10

TBL: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs TBL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2025-12-22	TBL 4 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-12-19	TBL 3 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-05	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2023-12-19	TBL 6 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	7	0	0.43
1	TBL	17	1	1.28
2	STL	17	1	1.00
2	TBL	11	0	0.91
3	STL	8	1	0.48
3	TBL	13	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2