Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2024-11-05 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 41.6%

TBL: 58.4%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.11

TBL: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	23	21	2	91.3%	2.73	1	0.73
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	23	20	3	87.0%	1.90	2	-1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs TBL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2025-12-22	TBL 4 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-12-19	TBL 3 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-05	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2023-12-19	TBL 6 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	7	0	0.43
1	TBL	17	1	1.28
2	STL	17	1	1.00
2	TBL	11	0	0.91
3	STL	8	1	0.48
3	TBL	13	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4