Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2024-11-06 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 71.8%

VGK: 28.2%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.85

VGK: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	35	31	4	88.6%	4.24	4	0.24
VGK	Adin Hill	29	27	2	93.1%	2.57	3	0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 43% • EDM at home vs VGK: 8-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	VGK
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	12	2	0.92
1	VGK	13	1	0.90
2	EDM	20	1	1.08
2	VGK	16	1	1.24
3	EDM	8	0	0.58
3	VGK	16	2	2.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.8 - 2.8