Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2024-11-06 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 54.4%
VGK: 45.6%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.05
VGK: 2.83
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 15-7-2 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | EDM | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.841 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.73 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • EDM at home vs VGK: 5-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | EDM 4 - 3 VGK | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-05-14 | VGK 0 - 1 EDM | EDM | VGK |
| 2025-05-12 | EDM 3 - 0 VGK | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-05-10 | EDM 3 - 4 VGK | VGK | EDM |
| 2025-05-08 | VGK 4 - 5 EDM | EDM | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:05 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 15:56 | EDM | Goal |
| 2 | 12:18 | EDM | Goal |
| 3 | 19:55 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 19:11 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 10:05 | EDM | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.0 - 2.8