New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-11-07 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 54.4%

NYI: 45.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.38

NYI: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 45%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	25	21	4	84.0%	2.65	2	-1.35
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	30	28	2	93.3%	2.60	0	0.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • OTT at home vs NYI: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	NYI 0 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-03-19	OTT 3 - 2 NYI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-18	OTT 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	OTT
2025-01-14	NYI 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-12-08	OTT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	9	0	0.63
1	NYI	10	0	0.63
2	OTT	18	0	0.96
2	NYI	12	1	0.95
3	OTT	16	0	1.01
3	NYI	8	1	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0