Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-11-07 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 57.3%

PHI: 42.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.34

PHI: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	33	30	3	90.9%	3.78	2	0.78
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	25	24	1	96.0%	2.99	2	1.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	2	1.21
1	PHI	8	0	0.31
2	TBL	16	0	0.73
2	PHI	15	0	1.09
3	TBL	10	0	0.44
3	PHI	14	0	0.53
4	TBL	4	0	0.48
4	PHI	4	0	0.32
5	TBL	2	0	0.13
5	PHI	2	2	1.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9