Montreal Canadiens at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2024-11-07 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 5 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

NJD: 74.1%

MTL: 25.9%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.58

MTL: 2.58

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	24	21	3	87.5%	2.37	2	-0.63
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	27	22	5	81.5%	4.30	3	-0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • NJD at home vs MTL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	MTL 0 - 3 NJD	NJD	NJD
2026-04-04	NJD 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	NJD
2025-11-06	NJD 4 - 3 MTL	NJD	NJD
2025-02-08	MTL 0 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-25	MTL 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	11	0	0.79
1	MTL	13	0	0.74
2	NJD	10	1	0.90
2	MTL	11	1	0.77
3	NJD	17	2	2.61
3	MTL	11	1	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 5 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.6 - 2.6