Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2024-11-07 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 56.3%

BUF: 43.7%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.02

BUF: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	22	16	6	72.7%	2.03	1	-3.97
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	26	25	1	96.2%	3.10	3	2.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYR at home vs BUF: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	NYR 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-08	NYR 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-09	BUF 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	BUF
2025-02-22	BUF 8 - 2 NYR	BUF	BUF
2024-12-11	BUF 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	11	1	0.96
1	BUF	7	0	0.55
2	NYR	15	0	0.84
2	BUF	11	0	0.78
3	NYR	16	2	1.30
3	BUF	9	1	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 1 - 6 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2