Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2024-11-07 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 0 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 48.5%

COL: 51.5%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.37

COL: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 40%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	35	35	0	100.0%	3.74	6	3.74
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	28	27	1	96.4%	2.63	2	1.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • WPG at home vs COL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	COL 2 - 4 WPG	WPG	COL
2026-03-26	WPG 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-14	WPG 3 - 1 COL	WPG	COL
2025-12-19	COL 3 - 2 WPG	COL	COL
2025-01-22	COL 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	17	0	0.94
1	COL	13	0	0.36
2	WPG	13	1	0.82
2	COL	15	2	1.16
3	WPG	8	1	0.87
3	COL	26	4	2.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.0

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 0 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.4 - 2.6