Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-11-09 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Calgary Flames
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 57.1%
CGY: 42.9%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.49
CGY: 3.04
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 37%
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs CGY: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-08 | CGY 7 - 4 BUF | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-11-19 | BUF 2 - 6 CGY | CGY | BUF |
| 2025-01-23 | CGY 5 - 2 BUF | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-11-09 | BUF 3 - 2 CGY | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-03-24 | CGY 1 - 4 BUF | BUF | BUF |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 12 | 1 | 0.94 |
| 1 | CGY | 9 | 0 | 0.09 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 2 | CGY | 15 | 0 | 0.83 |
| 3 | BUF | 7 | 0 | 0.26 |
| 3 | CGY | 14 | 0 | 0.89 |
| 4 | BUF | 3 | 0 | 0.15 |
| 4 | CGY | 4 | 0 | 0.30 |
| 5 | BUF | 3 | 1 | 0.62 |
| 5 | CGY | 3 | 0 | 0.23 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 57.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.5 - 3.0
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