Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-11-09 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

TOR: 59.7%

MTL: 40.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.91

MTL: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 42%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs MTL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MTL 3 - 1 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-12-06	TOR 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-22	MTL 5 - 2 TOR	MTL	MTL
2025-10-08	TOR 5 - 2 MTL	TOR	MTL
2025-04-12	TOR 1 - 0 MTL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	0	0.52
1	MTL	9	0	0.45
2	TOR	14	0	1.55
2	MTL	12	1	1.16
3	TOR	9	0	0.49
3	MTL	14	0	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.9 - 3.1