Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-11-11 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 7 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 58.4%

MTL: 41.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 4.09

MTL: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • BUF at home vs MTL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	0	0.67
1	MTL	9	0	0.72
2	BUF	10	0	0.52
2	MTL	13	1	1.10
3	BUF	10	0	0.57
3	MTL	10	3	2.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 7 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.1 - 2.9