San Jose Sharks at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-11-11 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

PHI: 74.5%

SJS: 25.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.79

SJS: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

SJS

Vitek Vanecek - 17-9-3 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	32	29	3	90.6%	2.55	0	-0.45
SJS	Vitek Vanecek	46	41	5	89.1%	5.75	3	0.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs SJS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	SJS
2025-12-09	PHI 4 - 1 SJS	PHI	PHI
2024-12-31	SJS 0 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI
2024-11-11	PHI 4 - 3 SJS	PHI	PHI
2024-03-12	PHI 3 - 2 SJS	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	1.07
1	SJS	13	0	0.63
2	PHI	23	1	1.63
2	SJS	12	0	0.65
3	PHI	19	0	0.83
3	SJS	9	0	0.67
4	PHI	5	0	0.33
4	SJS	6	0	0.45
5	PHI	3	2	1.89
5	SJS	2	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.8 - 2.6