Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-11-11 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 7 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

PIT: 46.3%

DAL: 53.7%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.91

DAL: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs DAL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	PIT 3 - 6 DAL	DAL	PIT
2025-12-07	DAL 3 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL
2025-04-05	DAL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	DAL
2024-11-11	PIT 1 - 7 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-22	DAL 4 - 2 PIT	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.44
1	DAL	15	1	1.17
2	PIT	10	0	0.87
2	DAL	12	0	0.90
3	PIT	9	1	0.72
3	DAL	24	0	1.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 7 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4