New York Islanders at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2024-11-12 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 New York Islanders

Win Probability

EDM: 65.6%

NYI: 34.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.31

NYI: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	22	19	3	86.4%	1.86	0	-1.14
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	42	38	4	90.5%	4.44	3	0.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs NYI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	EDM 0 - 1 NYI	NYI	EDM
2025-10-16	NYI 4 - 2 EDM	NYI	NYI
2025-03-14	NYI 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	NYI
2024-11-12	EDM 4 - 3 NYI	EDM	EDM
2023-12-19	NYI 3 - 1 EDM	NYI	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	19	1	1.51
1	NYI	8	0	0.68
2	EDM	14	1	1.07
2	NYI	14	0	0.50
3	EDM	23	0	1.16
3	NYI	9	0	0.69
4	EDM	4	1	0.70
4	NYI	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7