Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-11-13 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 60.5%

TOR: 39.5%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.53

TOR: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	34	30	4	88.2%	4.15	6	0.15
TOR	Joseph Woll	27	24	3	88.9%	3.77	3	0.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • WSH at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	21	1	1.79
1	TOR	7	2	0.65
2	WSH	11	1	0.71
2	TOR	12	1	0.67
3	WSH	9	1	0.88
3	TOR	21	3	2.25
4	WSH	4	0	0.40
4	TOR	4	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7