St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-11-14 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

BUF: 62.5%

STL: 37.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.49

STL: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

BUF

D. Levi

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	D. Levi	27	24	3	88.9%	2.06	0	-0.94
STL	Jordan Binnington	33	29	4	87.9%	1.87	0	-2.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs STL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-29	STL 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-11-06	BUF 0 - 3 STL	STL	BUF
2024-12-29	STL 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-11-14	BUF 4 - 3 STL	BUF	BUF
2024-02-10	BUF 1 - 3 STL	STL	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	BUF	18	0.83
1	STL	11	0.52
2	BUF	14	0.36
2	STL	15	0.96
3	BUF	10	0.34
3	STL	14	0.58
4	BUF	4	0.33
4	STL	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9