Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-11-14 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 55.1%

PHI: 44.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.79

PHI: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 38%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	19	14	5	73.7%	1.48	1	-3.52
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	37	33	4	89.2%	3.39	1	-0.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-04-13	OTT 4 - 3 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-03-11	PHI 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	17	0	1.09
1	PHI	4	0	0.34
2	OTT	20	0	1.09
2	PHI	5	1	0.48
3	OTT	10	1	0.95
3	PHI	11	0	0.53
4	OTT	3	0	0.26
4	PHI	3	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9