Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2024-11-14 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 57.6%
PHI: 42.4%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.56
PHI: 2.88
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | OTT | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.882 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.933 | 0.933 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • OTT at home vs PHI: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | PHI 1 - 2 OTT | OTT | PHI |
| 2025-11-08 | PHI 2 - 3 OTT | OTT | PHI |
| 2025-10-23 | OTT 2 - 1 PHI | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-04-13 | OTT 4 - 3 PHI | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-03-11 | PHI 2 - 5 OTT | OTT | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:31 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 06:02 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 08:41 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 18:48 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 04:27 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 10:05 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 10:42 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 12:45 | OTT | Goal |
| 4 | 04:05 | PHI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.6 - 2.9