Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-11-14 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

TBL: 60.4%

WPG: 39.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.47

WPG: 2.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	WPG 4 - 1 TBL	WPG	WPG
2026-01-29	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-14	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-03	WPG 7 - 4 TBL	WPG	WPG
2024-01-02	WPG 4 - 2 TBL	WPG	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.90
1	WPG	14	0	0.88
2	TBL	21	0	1.39
2	WPG	8	0	0.45
3	TBL	10	1	1.38
3	WPG	17	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.5 - 2.1