Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-11-14 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

TBL: 65.3%

WPG: 34.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.14

WPG: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	23	1	95.8%	2.04	0	1.04
WPG	Eric Comrie	29	25	4	86.2%	3.67	1	-0.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • TBL at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	WPG 4 - 1 TBL	WPG	WPG
2026-01-29	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-14	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-03	WPG 7 - 4 TBL	WPG	WPG
2024-01-02	WPG 4 - 2 TBL	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.90
1	WPG	14	0	0.88
2	TBL	21	0	1.39
2	WPG	8	0	0.45
3	TBL	10	1	1.38
3	WPG	17	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 2.6